The announcement of a public holiday by President Cyril Ramaphosa, following the Springbok’s triumphant World Cup win last week, might have made all the headlines, however, it was the president’s statement on load shedding that caught the public’s attention.
With the restoration of Kusile Unit 1, President Cyril Ramaphosa said the levels and frequency of load shedding were expected to improve during the fourth quarter and that Eskom was on the right path to ending load shedding.
But how true is this?
Could South Africa soon overcome its energy crisis and end load shedding?
Energy experts have urged South Africans to take the news with a pinch of salt.
“The Eskom fleet does not respond to calls from politicians and promises for incentives, said energy expert Lungile Mashele.
“It responds to maintenance, correctly spec’d fuel, quality control measures being in place, the weather and demand, among other issues.
“I would take what politicians say half-heartedly. The system operator has, in the latest Eskom annual results, indicated that only two things will alleviate load shedding – maintenance and 4-6GW of new firm capacity. Until then, we may see a reduction in load shedding but certainly not an end to it.”
Mashele did, however, highlight the importance of the restoration of Kusile Unit 1.
“Kusile is very important in Eskom’s current and future plans. The total planned capacity of Kusile, once fully commissioned, will be 4 800MW. Following the collapse of the chimney in 2022, Eskom lost three units which account for 2 400MW of capacity. This is why we had a horrible start to the year, reaching stage 6 load shedding and a less than pleasant winter.
“The return of two of these units is what has helped Eskom avoid higher stages of load shedding.”
While load shedding may not come to an end any time soon, Mashele is hopeful that South Africa will turn around its energy crisis soon.
“South Africa can and will turn this around provided there is political will – this is not an energy crisis but a political crisis. Other nations have been here but have managed to resolve load shedding permanently. There seems to be no desire to end load shedding in South Africa.
“Other countries procured quickly. They procured firm capacity and in some cases even over capacity.
“Countries like Ghana deployed gas-fired plants, China emphasised coal. The UK is currently building Hinkley Point, a nuclear plant. This is done in addition to their ambitions for emissions reductions as per their nationally determined contributions.
“Again, the Eskom system operator has been very clear: two things will end load shedding in SA: Maintenance and 4-6GW of new firm capacity.”
Professor Hartmut Winkler, an energy analyst at the University of Johannesburg, is in agreement with Mashele, saying nobody was able to make a promise that they would end load shedding.
“I’m not sure if that was a ‘promise’, or just an expression of an expectation,” said Winkler.
“Nobody can make a promise that they will end load shedding, not even the president, because all sorts of things can go wrong, and many of these are not under anyone’s control, for example. a natural disaster.
“The word ‘soon’ is also open to interpretation. It could be a few weeks, it could be a few years.
“If anyone genuinely believes that there will be no load shedding next year, then they are seriously misguided. The best one can hope for is that there will be less load shedding in 2024 than in 2023, and if that is the case (something I am not convinced of, although that would be a reasonable expectation), then that will be a positive achievement.
“I think we will still have some load shedding for the next five years, but the intensity should gradually decrease if the correct strategy is adopted and carried out.”
Winkler said it was possible that Ramaphosa could have made load shedding promises in anticipation of next year’s elections.
“It would, of course, be very helpful to the ANC if they can present themselves as the party/government that has succeeded in getting us out of the power crisis.
“Other parties will claim that the opposite is the case, and that they would have done better. Expect a lot of political noise around this issue in the build-up to the elections.”
Winkler is, however, buoyed by the return of Kusile Unit 1.
“Kusile is designed to produce 4 800MW of power, that is almost five stages of load shedding. It has six units of 800MW each.
“Only one was operating for much of this year, and that was the main reason why the power cuts this year were so severe.
“Another two units were brought back into operation recently, albeit through ‘patch-jobs’ that will lead to extremely high emission of pollutants into the atmosphere.
“The question of whether the remaining three Kusile units are going to come into operation soon will play a critical role in determining how severe power cuts will be next year.”
Winkler also believes that South Africa is capable of turning its electricity woes around, however it will require time.
“This is not something that can be achieved in the short term. It will also require the adoption of the correct strategies, and will take about five years.
“To me, the obvious solution lies in solar and wind power. South Africa has some of the best conditions in the world for these technologies.
“Many other countries with far fewer sunshine hours and less wind are already getting a third of their electricity from wind and solar, but in South Africa, the percentage of installed renewable power generation is currently very small.
“Eskom statistics for this last winter show that only about 7% of its total electricity came from these two sources. If South Africa can raise this total to closer to 30% in the coming five years, then this would have a decisive impact.
“Note that solar and wind farms can be built in two years, whereas plants using competing technologies like nuclear and coal have typical construction times of 10 years or more (construction for the Kusile coal plant started in 2007, and it is still not finished).”
Power utility Eskom has handed over load shedding operations for large parts of Joburg to City Power.
Load shedding operations for most of City Power’s areas of supply, previously administered by Eskom, will be the city’s responsibility and will enable it to exclude industrial and business customers from load shedding.
The city will be able to decide who to cut and who not to, while adhering to the megawatts requirements made to Eskom in the event of the system coming under serious strain.
The Star