The globe’s eyes are fixed on the Middle East as Israel escalates its war to include Palestine and ground invasion of Lebanon. Now, a new player has entered the fray - Iran.
Secretary-general of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, was assassinated along with seven other leaders of the organisation.
Iran is a major supporter of the Shia Islamist militia and political group. So, in its near decimation, Iran retaliated by raining down missiles on the state accused of committing genocide in Gaza.
It threatened to attack if Israel responded. “If the Zionist regime reacts to Iranian operations, it will face crushing attacks,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement.
However, Israel is not backing down and vowed to make Iran pay.
“Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it. Whoever attacks us, we attack them,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted saying by AFP.
As tensions rise, the stage may be set for one of the most deadliest wars in history.
What could a war between the two countries mean for South Africa?
Relations between SA and Israel are shaky while also being non-existent. This is mainly due to the fact that South Africa took Israel to the Hague for violations of the Genocide Convention over its actions taken in Gaza.
Conversely, SA and Iran are in a better standing with the nation having joined BRICS on January 1, 2024 following an invitation by the block.
Dirk Kotze, a professor at the department of political sciences at UNISA, told IOL that a direct war between the states is slim. This, he said, is mostly due to the distance.
Tehran is about 1 591 km away from Tel Aviv.
“The idea that one country can invade another or send ground troops or armies into each other’s territory is not possible,” Kotze said. “The only way in which they can attack each other is through their air forces, drones and missiles.”
He went on to say that what could happen is a war between Israel and the proxies of Iran; Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza and the Houthi in Yemen.
“It would not have direct consequences for South Africa. However, it would enhance the risk factors at a global level and have a negative effect on the global economy as well.
“The oil prices might go up as it has been predicted. Markets will be at risk. It will affect the JSE.”
On Iran being part of BRICS, Kotze said SA is also a part of the African Union (AU) and Israel is an observer of the union. “BRICS is therefore not the only determinant of SA’s position,” he added.
IOL