The wheels have come off the African National Congress’ (ANC’s) ground campaign machinery in the Western Cape.
This is according to a dire internal canvassing report that shows little to no penetration in door-to-door operations in the Democratic Alliance-run province.
While canvassing isn’t a predictor of electoral performance, the indicators are of a capitulation of the ANC’s ground game in the Western Cape.
Despite this, the ANC’s provincial spokesperson Khalid Sayed told IOL the canvassing efforts have gone above and beyond previous campaigns.
“The performance to date has far exceeded our canvassing performance in previous elections.”
The report states that in the entirety of the Western Cape, only 26.4% of the canvassing targets have been met. This is consistently low across all regions.
Among the lowlights in the report:
- The ANC in Mitchells Plain and the Southern Suburbs have only hit 3% of the canvassing targets;
- Atlantis and Milnerton have reported 7.5% of targets, while Elsies River and Bonteheuwel come in at 7.8%;
- Atlantis and Milnerton have reported 7,5% of targets, while Elsies River and Bonteheuwel come in at 7.8%;
- The report records the Southern Suburbs subregion as having submitted zero reports.
The Dullah Omar region has the most registered voters of all the regions in the province, with Mitchells Plain seen as key to overturning DA rule in the province. A poor performance by the ANC here would see other parties benefit, and the DA retain the province either outright or by coalition.
This region as a whole reports a canvassing performance of 27.5% to target in total, largely due to the canvassing performances in Khayelitsha (62.7%), Phillipi and Crossroads (49%), and Gugulethu and Nyanga (40.7%).
Central Karoo — 30.2%
Dullah Omar — 27.5%
Overberg — 26.4%
Southern Cape — 24.2%
West Coast — 26.4%
In the Southern Cape, four of the seven subregions are recorded as having not submitted reports, even though canvassing data is recorded.
What does this mean for the ANC and the Western Cape?
With less than two weeks left for electioneering more reports that have not yet been captured may be forthcoming. However, with less than two weeks left until voting day, there are unlikely to be many more door-to-door opportunities left.
The largest beneficiaries of this are set to be smaller parties. Of late people in the Western Cape are demonstrably more vocal about unhappiness with the DA’s governance.
The DA has consistently bled voters in the province over the last several election cycles. Most recently unhappiness with the genocide in Palestine has been a rallying point for discontent.
A poor electoral performance by the ANC would not necessarily translate into direct gain for the DA. Loss of votes for the ANC is likely to be distributed among other opposition parties in the Western Cape, many of whom are aligned against the DA.
Support for the DA in the Western Cape in the 2019 general elections was at 52.41%, while the ANC in the province garnered 31.23%.
IOL Politics