In seeking to appease both the US and Russia, South Africa’s diplomacy has created a precarious dilemma: a foreign policy that undermines the very relationships it aims to preserve.
That is how International Relations expert and director of Surgetower Associates Siseko Maposa reacted following the news of the postponement of a “goodwill visit” by strategic bombers of the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation to South Africa.
On Wednesday, the SANDF in a brief statement announced that the arrival of the Tupolev Tu-160 “Blackjack” strategic bombers at the Air Force Base Waterkloof was postponed.
The Russian air arsenal was to visit between October 29 until November 2 as part of display of defence co-operation, strengthening of military-to-military relations, in particular the South African Airforce (SAAF) and a bilateral seminar of both technical staff where officials deliberate on combat planning and the planning philosophy as well as search and rescue matters. Further enquiries to the SANDF were not answered by deadline.
The news comes at a time when the Russia-Ukraine conflict tested the Government of National Unity (GNU) partners, the ANC and DA.
The DA first criticised President Cyril Ramaphosa for his BRICS comments that Russia was South Africa’s ally, saying this was not a view shared by parties in the coalition government. Days later, Home Affairs Minister Leon Schreiber, a senior member of the DA, announced a significant agreement for visa-free access for Ukrainian holders of diplomatic, official, and service passports to South Africa, expressing pride in this historic move.
In response, Ramaphosa’s spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya expressed concerns about the timing of the announcement, saying that the president had not yet formally authorised Schreiber’s signing of the agreement.
“It is unclear how the minister can announce the signature of an international agreement without prior formal authorisation,” said Magwenya, On the “goodwill visit”, Maposa said: “Of course, the ongoing upheaval is rooted in the GNU’s fragile stability, which is increasingly strained by the ANC and DA’s sharply divergent stances on critical diplomatic issues. However, it would be remiss to overlook the historical context: South Africa’s foreign policy has traditionally been ambiguous, pivoting between Western and Eastern influences as strategic interests demand.
“In this context, it’s little wonder that the Waterkloof landing of Russian Tupolev Tu-160 jets was postponed – the recent Taiwan Office controversy, which led to calls in the USA for South Africa to be taken off African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), has possibly left Pretoria hesitant and cautious of antagonising Washington any further.The irony is that, in seeking to appease
both the USA and Russia, South Africa’s diplomacy has created a precarious dilemma: a foreign policy that undermines the very relationships it aims to preserve,” said Maposa.
Political analyst, Professor Sipho Seepe, said: “The decision to postpone the visit of Russian bombers may be related to unresolved logistical issues inasmuch as it may be that the ANC does not know how to respond to the consequences of it sending mixed messages. The DA is correct to force the ANC to take a stand. Either you are on the side of (hounds) or on the side of hares.
You can’t have it both ways.” DA’s MP on Defence Chris Hattingh, called on Ramaphosa to cancel the tour altogether.
“The department’s use of the Nato reporting name ‘Blackjack’ in its media statement, rather than the Russian-preferred ‘White Swan’ is significant, signalling acknowledgment of the bombers’ combat purpose over their cultural symbolism.
“During a prior visit to South Africa in March 2019, one of the Blackjacks (Serial No. 82040) was subsequently used to transport missiles to the front in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where they were deployed against Ukrainian civilian areas,” said Hattingh.
The presidency maintained its stance of non-alignment, said Magwenya. “This is a Defence Force issue. The call for the president’s intervention is just a publicity seeking stunt. The DA knows that through several bilateral relations, we have military exchanges with a number of countries, including Western countries.
“The DA has adopted a posture towards the Russian Federation and that’s their decision and choice.
As recent as this past Sunday, we stated our position with respect to our relationship with Russia and our broader foreign policy position.
That position has not changed, and it is not going to change,” said Magwenya.
Cape Times