Let’s get something straight: The Government of National Unity (GNU) of 2024 is not the same as the Government of National Unity of 1994.
The 1994 GNU was an ANC proposal included in Clause 88 of the Interim Constitution to ensure inclusivity during the transition period from apartheid to democracy.
The 1994 GNU was a winning party, that, with 62% of the votes, created a mechanism for losing parties to co-govern with it. Thus, the NP and IFP, who met the 10% threshold, became part of the GNU.
This magnanimous act of generosity put South Africa’s stability at the forefront by bringing three warring parties into a co-governance relationship.
The 2024 GNU comprises a bunch of losers who agreed to form a government, with great disquiet from its ranks and several external groupings. An interesting set of numbers: In 1994 the ANC won 12.2 million votes. In 2024 it won 6.4 million votes. It has not managed to grow its voter base beyond its 1994 totals, despite a 21% growth in registered voters between 1994 and 2024.
The DA, on the other hand, has shown significant growth since the DP of Zac De Beer, which only won 338 426 votes in 1994. The DA has, since that small beginning, won over 3.5 million votes in 2024. Why has the DA been able to grow since 1994 while the ANC is trapped in what is a clear negative spiral?
The ANC has gone through several party splits that have damaged its growth. Those splinter groups all tend to vote to the left of the ANC. The DA has had similar splinter groups arise as well as leadership resignations. But its most prominent strategy has been one of gobbling up the voters of the parties it goes into coalitions with, a thing the ANC has been unable to achieve.
It has also maintained a centre-right political view, that even those who abandoned the party still vote for.
Both parties are however stuck. The DA only broke through the 2 million votes barrier in 2009 under Helen Zille’s leadership. In 2024 it is now sitting at 3.5 million votes out of a total of 27.7 million voters. The ANC is similarly stuck. Its message has failed to grow its voter base.
In 1994, under Nelson Mandela, it received 12.2 million votes. Since then, its highest number of votes received was under Jacob Zuma in 2009, when he led the ANC to 11.6 million votes. In 2024 the ANC has received 48% fewer votes than it received in 1994, despite its multiple renewal campaigns.
The real contest in our elections is no longer about ideology or party. It is about two personalities. It’s an election between Jacob Zuma and Helen Zille – and the interests they represent.
These are the two power personalities in South African politics today. Ramaphosa is tragically an absent president, a man who enjoys corporate life more than the presidential office.
Zille has more passion and skill than most politicians who desire the office of president of the Republic of South Africa. But in building her party she made two mistakes: she built her base by appealing to the conservative white, coloured and black voters, a grouping whose politics have not matured beyond 1985 when they lost the referendum. Her second mistake is to confuse efficient service delivery and clean audits with justice and the Bill of Human Rights. These fatal mistakes gave rise to the racists who now live in full view in the DA.
Meanwhile, in Nkandla, a charismatic cartel chess player is preparing for the 2029 elections. It’s going to be an epic battle. His strategy is two-fold: first to take over the ANC, and then to take over the government – 2029 has begun.
* Lorenzo A. Davids.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media
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