South Africa is steering clear of significant ramifications from an outbreak of Goss wilt in maize and Gut rot in palm products, threatening the integrity of a continental agricultural produce market valued at more than $13.2 billion (R250bn).
This month, neighbouring Botswana and Namibia hastily imposed bans on critical imports following the detection of the aforementioned crop diseases in South African provinces, raising alarms about its implications for local and regional food security.
With Namibia’s recent ban coming into effect last Friday, the stakes became apparent as South Africa found itself on the verge of losing substantial export volumes.
The affected crops encompass approximately 155 882 tons of white maize and 46 969 tons of yellow maize for the 2024/25 season.
Namibia, which has historically been South Africa’s second-largest white maize importer after Zimbabwe, now finds itself in a precarious position having revoked all importation permits for the affected plants and products.
This is for the 2024/25 season. For this season, Namibia was South Africa’s second biggest importer of white maize next to Zimbabwe.
Department of Agriculture said Minister John Steenhuisen was aware of the ban, adding that it was in the process of engaging with its counterpart in order for the ban to be lifted.
Local experts said South African scientists were still studying the bacteria when Botswana banned imports of a wide-range of products including maize, sorghum, and wheat which extended to pawpaw, kiwi, and coconut.
This came while the research showed that the risk was mainly in maize seeds for planting, and the bacteria would not be transferred to maize for feed or human consumption.
“There was no scientific evidence of risks to other products. This decision again raised the question of why SACU is not cooperating better on these scientific questions,” said Wandile Sihlobo, AgriSA chief economist.
According to data, the two countries accounted for 16% of South Africa’s total maize exports during the 2023/24 marketing season, amounting to 548 869 tons, with Botswana and Namibia contributing shares of 56% and 44%, respectively.
For the 2024/25 season, both countries have already imported 426 473 tons, which represents 25% of South Africa’s total maize exports to date, amounting to 1.70 million tons.
FNB senior agricultural economist, Paul Makube, said the extent of the damage was still being investigated.
“So far, it appears to be very limited, contained, and under control,” Makube said.
“Further studies on the disease are ongoing, and it is still too early to comment definitively on the impact on the sector’s outlook.There is no threat to food security currently.”
Marguerite Pienaar, Grain SA economist said there were not a lot of countries that plant and produce white maize, it was just South Africa, Mexico and the US on contract basis.
“Therefore, the ban ons white maize imports from South Africa can be problematic for Namibia if their own crop is not sufficient due to extreme weather conditions experienced in that country,” Pienaar said.
“There are not a lot of alternative options. To ensure that the disease has not spread, and the risk has not increased, official monitoring is in place. A demarcation survey will be conducted in the 2024/25 season), which so far indicates that the disease is not occurring or spreading on a large scale.”
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